UMass Study Analyzes Economic Impacts Of Proposed Vessel Speed Restriction On Island

Nantucket's economy would take a $286 million hit every year and lose as many as 1,500 jobs if the federal government's proposed vessel speed restriction to protect right whales is implemented.

Those dire predictions were outlined in an economic impact analysis completed by the UMass Donahue Institute that was presented to the Select Board this week.

On Thursday, the town forwarded the findings to Massachusetts Governor Maura Healey with an urgent plea for assistance in carving out an exemption from the proposed rule for Nantucket Sound.

"As expected, and feared, the proposed vessel speed reduction would devastate Nantucket’s economy and have life-altering effects for its residents, according to the report," Select Board chair Brooke Mohr wrote in the letter to Healey. "Nantucket Island and its more than 15,000 residents urgently need your assistance and support to ensure the proposed rule is not implemented. Our livelihoods, health and safety are at risk."

For more than two years, Nantucket's ferry operators, fishermen, and municipal officials have been sounding the alarm about the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) proposed vessel speed restriction to protect North Atlantic right whales along the East Coast. The rule would require most vessels over 35 feet to travel at speeds of 10 knots or less in an area stretching from Massachusetts to North Carolina from Nov. 1 through May 30. That restriction would effectively end fast ferry travel to and from Nantucket.

Despite the objections from Nantucket, the proposed rule remains pending and earlier this year NOAA recommended to the Office of Management and Budget that the restriction be implemented, moving it to the final stage in the federal review process.

Earlier this year, the Select Board and the Nantucket Planning & Economic Development Commission paid the UMass Donahue Institute $43,000 to complete an economic analysis of the impact of the proposed rule on Nantucket's economy.

"Changes in ferry service would result in a loss of commuters, visitors, and outbound trade," the study concluded. "The total impact of these changes would be a reduction of approximately $286 million of economic activity and 1,500 jobs before accounting for any additional losses due to supply chain constraints and other disruptions. This amounts to roughly 11 percent of Nantucket’s current economy and workforce."

Beyond shutting down fast ferry service to Nantucket, the rule would also force the Steamship Authority's traditional car and freight ferries to operate at slower speeds, reducing the number of daily round trips to the island from three to two.

"As a result, the daily volume of people, vehicles, food, consumer goods, medicine, construction materials, fuel, and solid waste could be reduced by a third," the report states. "Using data from IMPLAN, we estimate that $112 million of goods are at risk due to the change in cargo capacity, or roughly 17 percent of the island’s total goods trade. Of this amount, $94.5 million is inbound and $17.8 million is outbound."

No fast ferries would mean day trippers would likely be eliminated, the Umass Donahue Institute asserted, a huge blow to the seasonal and year-round businesses that rely on the infusion of spending they bring during the summer months.

"Using credit card transaction data and SSA passenger surveys, we estimate that day trippers currently account for around a third of on-island spending between November 1 and May 30," the study concluded. "We assume that increased travel time to and from the island combined with the paucity of ferry options would largely eliminate tourists taking day trips during the November through May speed restriction period and would similarly decrease the number of people making shorter (1-2 night) trips. Using data from the Nantucket Chamber of Commerce, we estimate that those making short stays account for 29 percent of total overnight stays. When combined, the spending of these two groups of travelers from November through May is $55.5 million, representing 53 percent of seasonal and 18 percent of annual spending."

The study, prepared by UMass Donahue Institute's Economic & Public Policy Research (EPPR) group, was presented to the Select Board Wednesday night by project leader Rod Motamedi, the assistant director of the institute.

"The island has developed around the fast ferries for the last 30-some-odd years," Motamedi said. "Imagine there was a bridge, and the bridge isn't there anymore...Everything would be harder. Going to visit family and friends off-island, medical care, all of those things that require the ability to come and go."

Beyond the quantitative economic impacts, Motamedi and his team also shared the qualitative findings of the proposed vessel speed restriction, including how it could affect public safety services, healthcare, and the ability of island schools to participate in educational and athletic events off-island.

"In 2023, there were 27,353 school or youth group riders on Nantucket’s Hy-LineFerry, an average of over 2,000 every month," the study asserted. "In the event of this rule change, that population would see a serious reduction in its ability to engage in sports or off-island learning opportunities."

Erika Mooney, the town's operations administrator, emphasized the negative mental health impacts of island youth missing out on those opportunities for sports and other events.

Wendy Hudson, a member of the Nantucket Planning & Economic Development Commission, pointed out that the study did not take into account the potential impact of the speed restriction on property values and taxes.

"I feel like this would have a huge impact on our property values, and a lot of people would just move - like a real lot - and the property values would plummet," Hudson said.

In its letter to Healey, the town acknowledged the need for rules and regulations to protect endangered right whales, but emphasized the point Nantucket's ferry operators have emphasized for the past two years: there have not been any right whale sightings in Nantucket Sound in decades.

"We must reiterate that the need to institute measures to protect the right whale population is indisputable," the town stated. "But right whale conservation efforts must be focused where the whales travel and congregate and that is not Nantucket Sound. According to our primary ferry operators, there has not been one documented right whale sighting in Nantucket Sound during more than one million trips between Hyannis and Nantucket over the past 25 years."