Boston Globe Poll Indicates Divide On Three Ballot Questions

With the midterm elections right around the corner, a new poll from the Boston Globe suggests several of the questions on the Massachusetts ballot may be more tightly contested than previous data indicated.

On Nantucket, island residents can cast their votes at the Nantucket High School from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. on November 3rd.

There is little suspense surrounding many of the races on the Massachusetts ballot Tuesday: Democrats are expected to coast to re-election in most statewide offices, and efforts to repeal marijuana legalization and a landmark gun control law have poor odds. Similarly, ballot questions seeking to expand the state’s public records law, allow collective bargaining for public defenders, provide for same-day voter registration and establish a dedicated nature conservation fund are expected to pass. But a recent Boston Globe poll found the state’s electorate more divided on three other ballot questions, including two that had previously polled very well.

One of the races was already expected to be close. Question Three would replace partisan primaries in Massachusetts with a single all-party primary. The top two finishers from that primary would then face each other in the general election. The question has divided both the Democratic and Republican parties and has become the most high-profile contest in the state.

Several recent polls, including the Boston Globe’s, have shown the race within the margin of error, although all of them have found that a plurality of respondents support the measure. In the Boston Globe poll, around 47 percent of respondents said they supported the change, and 41 percent said they opposed it.

But the other two races that appeared close in the Boston Globe poll are more surprising. One of them, Question Five, would reduce the maximum tax revenue the state can collect in a year. The wording of the question is complex, but in essence, it would lead to larger tax refunds and a drop in state revenue, meaning spending on government programs would fall as well. In previous polls, Question Five enjoyed broad support, but in the Boston Globe poll, it only held a narrow lead: 40 percent of respondents backed the measure, and 37.6 percent opposed it.

The story is similar for Question Seven, which would require cities and towns to allow single-family homes on residential lots of at least 5,000 square feet that have at least 50 feet of frontage and access to public sewer and water services. Many zoning districts have much larger minimum lot sizes, meaning that, in practice, Question Seven would increase density in large parts of the state, including much of Nantucket.

Until the Boston Globe poll, the measure had looked nearly certain to pass. The most recent poll before the Boston Globe’s survey gave it a 44-point advantage. The Boston Globe, however, found the electorate evenly divided. With 41.2 percent of respondents in favor of the measure and 40.6 percent opposed, the results were essentially a tie.