Planning Commission Gets Preview Of Nantucket Buildout Analysis

According to a presentation summarizing some of the preliminary findings from a build-out analysis of Nantucket, there could be over 6,000 new dwelling units on the island by 2050, serving a year-round population of nearly 32,000. The presentation was given by Weston Sampson, the firm hired to conduct the analysis, at a Nantucket Planning and Economic Development Commission (NP&EDC) meeting Monday.

A draft report of the analysis is not yet available, but in the presentation on its key conclusions, Joanna Nadeau, a senior planner with Weston-Sampson, said that if the average growth rate over the last 50 years continues, the island will face demand for 6,276 additional dwelling units. If the average number of units built over the last five years is a more accurate measure, that number could be closer to 5,400.

Weston-Sampson also offered a range of more conservative estimates. If the population grows at the slowest observed rate over the last 50 years, demand could be as low as 828 units. But Nadeau doesn’t think that’s likely.

“I think that upper range more closely matches the average development trends,” Nadeau said. "We would suggest you could see 5,000-6,000 new dwelling units in these areas by 2050.”

The wide range of possibilities highlights the significant uncertainty inherent in forecasting the island’s future. Even if the projections were more precise, they could change dramatically if the town’s zoning laws are altered.

In total, the areas covered by the analysis, which excludes the sewer and sewered needs areas covered by the 2020 sewer master plan, have enough space for 9,600-12,000 new dwelling units. But many of those dwelling units are unlikely ever to be built.

“For any of this to be real, it takes actions from property owners. It's not just going to happen, boom,” NP&EDC Commissioner and Chair pro-tem Dave Iverson said. “I think the numbers are scary, but I'm not sure we are going to realize it very quickly.”

The division between the areas covered by the sewer master plan and the current build-out analysis drew criticism from some on the NP&EDC, with multiple members requesting that the two sets of numbers be merged to provide a single unified look at the island’s future.

“It just feels like apples and oranges, or like there's some sort of false separation,” NP&EDC member Hillary Hedges Rayport said.

Rayport and other commissioners stressed the need for a full report before drawing any major conclusions from the data.

According to the analysis, Nantucket is currently at about 36 to 41 percent of its maximum build-out, with that figure set to reach 65 to 69 percent by 2050, leaving large swaths of buildable land still undeveloped.

“You have enough land to accommodate rather large population growth,” Nadeau said.

While the build-out analysis is likely to impact Nantucket’s long-term planning, it’s currently too early to know what that impact will look like.

“We don’t have the final report yet, so I don’t have detailed information to provide at this point,” Nantucket Planning Director Leslie Snell said.

Weston-Sampson has been working on the analysis for some time. The Town first went to Weston-Sampson for the analysis after the 2020 sewer master plan, looking to complement the findings from the build-out analysis of the sewered and sewer needs areas that was completed for that plan. Now, the findings are finally available—but it will still be some time before the complete report is finalized.